Last week wiped out a lot of NFL survivor pool entries, and now it’s time to deal with the aftermath. For the second week in a row, at least half of all entries in most pools were eliminated. About half of the most popular picks were upset, including the Cowboys, Bills, and Saints. This week, some of the same favorites who were featured last week are back again. The experts from TeamRankings are here to go over the pros and cons of the five most popular teams since you’re probably considering choosing at least one in Week 10.
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Week 10 NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Tips, strategy for picks
Note: “Pick Popularity” numbers below refer to the estimated percentage of survivor pool entries nationwide that have already picked the team in question. Those numbers, as well as a team’s odds to win, can shift over the course of the week, so make sure to check our NFL survivor picks product for all the latest data plus customized pick advice for your pool.
Before we get to the five most popular teams, this will be the final week for pick analysis here. If you would like to get our advice and input for the rest of the year, check out our weekly survivor strategy article. And if you are in the final stages of your survivor pool, you can read our Endgame Strategy chapter in our free Survivor strategy e-book.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Detroit Lions
Pick Popularity: 31%
Point Spread: -9.0
The Steelers have no future value after this week. Their schedule gets substantially harder after Sunday’s game against the Lions, and we have them projected as an underdog every week moving forward. However, that doesn’t mean you have to use them, especially if you’ve made some picks in past weeks that saved future value.
Because of their popularity and the win odds of less popular options, the Steelers have the lowest Expected Value of any of the top five picks this week. If you pick another team, you will likely fade the largest chunk of your pool.
MORE TEAMRANKINGS: Week 10 Pick ’em pool advice
Baltimore Ravens at Miami Ravens
Pick Popularity: 19%
Point Spread: -7.5
The Ravens have similar win odds to Pittsburgh, but they’re coming at lower popularity right now. They do have some moderate future value, but this is the last week in which we currently project them with over 70-percent win odds. So, relative to Pittsburgh, they have a better EV.
They do have lower win odds than some less popular options with higher future value, which is why they have a modest 1.00 EV right now. Still, they may be a good option if you think more of your pool will be on Pittsburgh and you need to save teams like Buffalo and Arizona.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Atlanta Falcons
Pick Popularity: 14%
Point Spread: -9.0
Can you jump right back to Dallas after last week’s stinker against Denver? The Cowboys have similar win odds to Pittsburgh and Baltimore, but they’re at less than half the popularity of Pittsburgh.
This is somewhat offset by their future value, though. They are the projected largest favorite of Thanksgiving week despite having win odds of only 70 percent against Las Vegas. That projects to be a fairly difficult survivor week coming up soon.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Pick Popularity: 11%
Point Spread: -10.5
The Colts likely come down to availability. They had high popularity in Week 6, and they were the most popular pick last week that advanced in a week that took out half of all other entries. (Nearly 50 percent of all entries that advanced last week used the Colts.)
The Colts have a good EV again with slightly higher win odds and lower popularity than the top three options. This would be a good week to use them if you still have them available.
Arizona Cardinals (vs. Carolina)
Pick Popularity: 8%
Point Spread: -10.0
Arizona has similar EV to Indianapolis this week, but it also has more future value. Thus, preserving the Cardinals would behoove you unless you’ve used most of the other options. The Cardinals rank third in our future value measure for a standard 100-entry pool. They’re likely to have higher or similar value in the following weeks: at Chicago in Week 13, at Detroit in Week 15, vs. Indianapolis in Week 16.
Week 13 and 15 in particular get pretty thin, especially with a majority of entries having already used most of the top options.
Get our Week 10 survivor pick for your pool!
Every possible NFL Week 10 survivor pick has an expected value in the current week as well as a future value associated with it. Those values can vary significantly based on the characteristics of your pool, such as its size and its rules. It takes a lot of data and math to figure out which pick (or combination of picks, if you’re playing multiple entries) gives you the biggest edge to win your survivor pool. That’s why we’ve spent years building our NFL Survivor Picks product.
Our product asks you a few questions about your survivor pool, then provides customized pick advice using the latest matchup data, betting market odds, and public picking trends. It tracks the picks you’ve already made and even recommends how to split up your picks if you’re playing multiple entries. There’s nothing else like it, and it’s why our subscribers have reported nearly $3 million in survivor pool winnings since 2017.
We also have an e-book, Survivor Pool Strategy: What It Takes To Win. It explains all the key elements of survivor pool strategy and includes case studies on specific historical weeks and pool-winning entries. It’s free right now, so download your copy here.
We invite you to try it out, and good luck in your survivor pools this week!